In a shocking turn of events, President Donald Trump’s administration cut all military aid to Ukraine amidst negotiations for a rare mineral deal with the nation. No matter how one looks at it, the U.S. is using its leverage over a nation for its gain. While the Trump administration claims they are pressuring Ukraine to pursue peace with Russia, that outcome will likely not occur.
If the proposed ceasefire on March 15 passes, it will only be a temporary success, just as the Minsk agreement was a failed attempt at a Ukrainian-Russian ceasefire. The U.S. should not forget the failure of the Minsk agreement. The last time Russia agreed to peace, they took back their word and returned to invade Ukraine. While Ukraine backs the current ceasefire, Russia has committed many resources to this war, and the metaphorical bear has awoken.
As the war stands, Russia has a greater incentive to push toward significant victory with Russian manpower outnumbering Ukraine’s by 280% as of early 2025. Every dime of aid given to Ukraine matters, and any decrease in that aid puts Ukraine in a tricky spot. U.S. aid constitutes 21% of all aid given to the Ukrainian war effort. With the odds stacked against Ukraine raised even higher, Russia is very well inclined to continue the war.
The U.S. has promised aid to Ukraine, and they must keep it. In 2024, former President Joe Biden signed a foreign aid package that provided financial assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. During the Biden administration, the common sentiment of U.S. foreign policy with Ukraine was to end the war as quickly as possible by repelling Russia from attacking NATO members supporting Ukraine. With this aid package, the U.S. promised $67.5 billion; currently, $34.1 billion has been appointed, and the remaining $33.4 billion is still obligated by the United States.
Returning to the mineral deal, Vice President JD Vance stated on March 10, “The American people have got to get some payback.” After all, when giving aid to countries in need, said countries must pay the U.S. back mid-crisis for the goodwill and absolute benevolence the U.S. graced them with.
To Trump, this is all a gamble. When discussing the mineral deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump warned Zelenskyy he was gambling with a possible World War III. The only gamble being taken right now is Trump trusting Russia will accept a ceasefire when historically they have not been one to keep their word. If the U.S. continues to remain uninvolved with the Ukrainian conflict, World War III is not just a gamble; it is a certainty.
