A year away from the general elections, 2024 is looking to be as close as 2020 was in terms of the presidential election, but so much has transpired since the last election took place. Former President Donald Trump looks to once again have a stalwart hold on the Republican Party, polling leagues ahead of any of the other potential Republican candidates. This is despite the various court cases Trump has faced in the past couple of years — many of which are ongoing. Trump’s failure to attend any of the Republican debates and his announcement to skip the next one does not lend to his current plight. Nonetheless, these events can be seen through both a positive and negative lens for the former president.
Trump receiving strong support while facing charges once again solidifies the immense backing he holds within Republican voters, but his failure to attend the debates robs him of one of his best abilities — being in front of a camera. Say what you will about the man, but one thing that any other candidate cannot keep up with currently is Trump’s charisma and charm on screen. While at times boisterous, Trump has the ability to rally a crowd that is widely unseen by his party rivals Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis. While he has been seen speaking from time to time outside of the courtroom, his recent lack of media presence could be what keeps his numbers from being able to secure the race next year.
Now, on to who he will be facing next year: current President Joe Biden. Biden announced his reelection campaign in late April of this year and is predicted to face Trump next year for the 2024 election. Biden’s polls have never been exceptional but have seen falling approval, according to data from CNN. People have also shown growing concerns online with Biden’s ability to competently run the country for another four years due to his growing age and the abundance of mishaps throughout the past years, including multiple instances of falling and stuttering on camera.
While these signs point to the potential for a loss in next year’s race, the troubles are not new to the Biden campaign. Many of these stories are repeats of complaints people held during his 2020 run for office, as shown by headlines from 2019 like The Atlantic’s “Is Joe Biden Too Old to Run for President” and Politico’s “Biden nosedives in early-state polls.” Look at where he is now.
Alongside this, President Biden has the adversities of the opposition going for him. As proven by Trump’s actions related to the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, the former president’s continued lean towards more extreme right-wing support deters moderate votes, which are crucial for determining the outcome of this year’s swing states. These states heavily influenced the last election, and his prolonged negative representation in the media, especially including his current trials, may strengthen his following among Republican voters but might inevitably draw moderate voters back to voting for Biden.
Next year’s election could go either way. Many voters view this election as less of a vote for who they support and more as a begrudging choice between the lesser of two evils. The coming months will have an interesting run in store for both candidates, who are essentially already seated to face one another. The two most important factors to view going forward are how Trump handles his media presence in the following months and how, if at all, his trials will affect his run, and how Biden will convince his voters in the coming year that voting for him once more will be the right choice for the betterment of the country.
