In 2018, Beto O’Rourke ran for Texas Senate and lost to Senator Ted Cruz by a mere three percentage points — prompting many to believe Texas would soon turn blue. Two years later, the opportunity arose with the 2020 presidential election. President Joe Biden ended up losing the Texas electoral votes by less than six percentage points.
The 2024 presidential election reinstated Texas as a definitive red state when President-elect Donald Trump won by a margin of 14%. What changed in Texas between the 2020 and 2024 presidential election?
Major counties, such as Bexar, Harris, Dallas and Travis, continued to vote in favor of the Democratic nominee. However, Vice President Kamala Harris faced a 3-5% decrease in support compared to Biden in 2020. Tarrant County favored Biden by a slim 0.2%. The margin split open in 2024 by Trump, who garnered 51.9% of the popular vote compared to Harris’ 46.7%.
Already missing several of the votes in major cities that Biden had harnessed, it was all but guaranteed Harris would not be turning Texas blue. However, what became most shocking was the lack of support she received from counties in the Rio Grande Valley.
In 2020, Biden won 51% of the popular vote in Starr County and 58% in Hidalgo County — holding a 5% lead in Starr and 17% advantage in Hidalgo. The Democratic support wavered immensely in the 2024 election. In this election, 57.7% of voters in Starr County elected Trump, while 51% of Hidalgo County voted in favor of the GOP candidate. In Willacy and Cameron, previously blue counties, a little more than 50% of voters approved of Trump.
No counties who had previously supported Trump wavered in their endorsement during this election.
The increased support for the GOP is a trend that rings true across the nation. Surprisingly, the shift has been dominant in many Hispanic communities. Hispanic male voters remain concerned with economic issues. This attracted them to Trump, as he often lauded creating one of the best economies in U.S. history during his presidential term. The claims were disproven.
