Despite the film industry being rocked in 2023 by the longest strike in the history of the American actors’ union, SAG-AFTRA, several films smashed the box office, survived critic reviews and charmed audiences for weeks in theaters. Last year’s selection of movies holds the potential to be memorialized as some of the best in the industry through a nomination in the 2024 Oscar season. Before the official list is released on Jan. 23 and honors are formally delivered at the 96th Academy Awards on March 10, here are some predictions of which movies will receive accolades for their outstanding efforts in the top six categories.
Best Picture
Predicted nominees: “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” “Poor Things” and “The Zone of Interest.”
Predicted honorable mention: “The Color Purple”
Predicted winner: “Oppenheimer”
“Barbenheimer” looks like it is set for a spring encore as the two films guarantee a nomination, with “Poor Things” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” tagging closely behind. All four films saw critical and commercial success and were the products of seasoned directors with stellar casts. Each displayed remarkable or unique cinematography and storylines that will easily be remembered as the best of the year, with or without an Oscar nomination or award — “Oppenheimer” being the likely exception with a serious chance for the crown. The next six positions are up for grabs. They are likely to be filled with attractive films that are all the Academy’s type: most notably “Maestro” with its gorgeous black-and-white shots on 35 mm and the harrowing scenes of “The Zone of Interest” that are even more difficult to look away from. The latest adaptation of Alice Walker’s “The Color Purple” makes valiant efforts for Best Picture but will put up a better fight in the Best Adaptation category.
Best Director
Predicted nominees: Greta Gerwig – “Barbie,” Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things,” Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer,” Martin Scorsese – “KOTFM” and Jonathan Glazer – “The Zone of Interest.”
Predicted honorable mention: Bradley Cooper – “Maestro”
Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer”
The potential “Oppenheimer” sweep begins with a second nomination and a possible win for Christopher Nolan. The best of Nolan’s mastery of intense, action-packed drama was displayed in spectacular IMAX for an unforgettable experience. That is not to say the other directors did not release some of their best. The iconic Scorsese returned to add another classic to his legendary filmography with “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things,” which may be the first of Lanthimos’ films to spark a chain reaction of cinema classics. Greta Gerwig will likely continue to pave the way for female directors with another nomination for “Barbie.” Glazer’s direction in “The Zone of Interest” may make it the film to fill the fifth nomination.
Best Actress
Predicted nominees: Lily Gladstone – “KOTFM,” Carey Mulligan – “Maestro,” Margot Robbie – “Barbie,” Emma Stone – “Poor Things” and Sandra Hüller – “Anatomy of a Fall”
Predicted honorable mention: Annette Bening – “Nyad”
Predicted winner: Lily Gladstone – “KOTFM”
Lily Gladstone probably spends her days thinking about which pre-party and after-party to attend to celebrate her imminent win. Her portrayal of Mollie Burkhart in “Killers of the Flower Moon” is the stand-out of the year, and to be nominated alongside her is just as impressive. Margot Robbie can expect one for embodying the new and improved Barbie, and Emma Stone can expect another for playing the lovable weirdo Bella Baxter. Mulligan’s patience and restraint as loyal wife Felicia Montealegre to Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein revives the charm of the finest old Hollywood actresses. Finally, Hüller brings some French flair to the table as suspected murderer Sandra in “Anatomy of a Fall.” Bening’s performance as ambitious swimmer Diana Nyad has a lesser chance of breaking the top five yet remains a wholesome one worth mentioning.
Best Actor
Predicted nominees: Bradley Cooper – “Maestro,” Leonardo DiCaprio – “KOTFM,” Paul Giamatti – “The Holdovers,” Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer,” Jefferey Wright – “American Fiction”
Predicted honorable mention: Colman Domingo – “Rustin”
Predicted winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
The list for Best Actor is less obvious. From Wright’s laugh-out-loud delivery as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison to DiCaprio’s bumbling ignorance as Ernest Burkhart, they all certainly give a worthy cause for nomination. Here, Cooper tries his chance for a nomination with a convincing impression of Leonard Bernstein, and Giamatti rivals Wright as the comedic yet heartwarming lead in “The Holdovers.” Domingo stages a powerful stand as a possible contender for his role as Bayard Rustin. However, it is Murphy’s performance and signature shell-shock stare that are likely to secure another win for “Oppenheimer.”
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted nominees: Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer,” Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple,” Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari,” Julianne Moore – “May December,” Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers”
Predicted honorable mention: Jodie Foster – “Nyad”
Predicted winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers”
As Gladstone is debating between parties, Randolph is tailoring several killer outfits for the next few weeks, as she is another shoo-in for a nomination and win for Best Supporting Actress. And yet again, it is still a well-deserved honor for the other potential nominees. Foster could be a nominee for her ever-talented support of Annette Bening’s performance in “Nyad.” However, Blunt’s unforgettable support, paralleling that of her character Katherine Oppenheimer to her husband, will surely receive a nomination. “Orange is the New Black” star Brooks excels as Sofia in “The Color Purple.” Cruz and Moore are also strong contenders in this field.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted nominees: Robert De Niro – “KOTFM,” Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer,” Ryan Gosling – “Barbie,” Mark Ruffalo – “Poor Things,” William “Willem” Dafoe – “Poor Things”
Predicted honorable mention: Charles Melton – “May December”
Predicted winner: Ryan Gosling – “Barbie”
To predict Best Supporting Actor, there is only one question to ask: who had men nationwide sporting “I am Kenough” hoodies en masse? Ryan Gosling brought Ken’s stock character to something larger than life in “Barbie” and will likely be nominated, if not win this category. “Riverdale”s” Melton matures and stands tall as an actor in his role as young husband Joe, but it may be just short of a nomination. Downey Jr. dominates the last act of “Oppenheimer” as Lewis Strauss. Scorsese employed his long-time best friend De Niro to do his thing — which is giving Oscar-worthy performances — for “Killers of the Flower Moon” as the nefarious William Hale. Finally, Dafoe and Ruffalo were colleagues on set for “Poor Things” and will likely be competitors in the nominations.
There are many more categories to explore, and several other films may be snubbed or even surprise the most accurate predictors, like film-fan favorites “Saltburn” or “Priscilla.” Regardless, the 2024 Oscar season promises the recognition of the best films of 2023.
