In a collegiate sport where upsets are expected, especially during March Madness, the 2025 NCAA tournament has played out in a surprisingly conventional fashion. Power-five programs have largely maintained control, with mid-major Cinderellas struggling to break through in both the men’s and women’s brackets. While the absence of major chaos has dominated headlines, a few games have managed to cut through the noise — not necessarily because of massive seeding gaps, but due to the unexpected narratives and season-shifting implications they carried. Two matchups in particular exemplified the unpredictability that still defines this time of the year.
Women’s basketball: Kansas State defeats Kentucky
No. 5 Kansas State University’s 80-79 victory over No. 4 University of Kentucky sent shockwaves through the women’s bracket. While Kansas State has hovered around the top-20 nationally this season, few expected the Wildcats to survive a hostile road environment and emerge victorious against a red-hot Kentucky team. In women’s college basketball, major upsets are significantly rarer compared to the men’s side, due to the top-heavy nature of the teams. So, when a five-seed knocks out a four-seed in overtime, especially one with Final Four aspirations, it carries weight.
Guard Temira Poindexter’s electric performance from deep, combined with center Ayoka Lee’s impactful presence in the paint, flipped the game on its head. Lee’s return to the lineup after limited minutes during the regular season made Kansas State far more dangerous than their seeding would suggest. Her ability to draw defenders’ attention created the space Poindexter needed to go 8-for-15 from beyond the arc, scoring all 24 of her points from distance. Guard Serena Sundell also chipped in with a double-double, and the Wildcats found just enough to counter Kentucky’s 19 offensive rebounds and late-game push.
Guard Georgia Amoore led Kentucky and was central to their comeback effort, but her missed floater in the final seconds of overtime sealed the upset. Kansas State, long overshadowed in the Big 12, proved it belongs in the national conversation.
Men’s basketball: Arkansas defeats St. John’s
On the men’s side, No. 10 University of Arkansas’ 75-66 win over No. 2 St. John’s University might go down as the most improbable result of the tournament. A 10-seed taking down a 2-seed isn’t unheard of in the men’s game, but this wasn’t a typical upset. Arkansas began SEC play 0-5, lost its best scorer midseason and looked dead in the water by January. Meanwhile, coach Rick Pitino’s Red Storm squad was riding a 31-win season, a Big East Conference Championship and widespread Final Four expectations. However, none of that mattered on Saturday.
Arkansas physically overwhelmed St. John’s in the paint, outmatched them defensively and capitalized on a shockingly cold shooting night from the Red Storm, who shot just 28% from the field and 2-for-22 from three. Star guard RJ Luis Jr., who had been instrumental in St. John’s success throughout the season, struggled mightily — finishing just 3-for-17 from the floor with nine points before being benched by Pitino in the closing minutes.
With guard Billy Richmond III stepping up and coach John Calipari’s young guards attacking relentlessly, the Razorbacks showed a composure and cohesion that had been absent all year. The victory wasn’t the product of chance but rather the result of a well-executed game plan and timely contributions from a team that found its rhythm at the most important moment of the season.
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