March has always been the stage where underdogs rewrite the script. It is the month when a small school can turn a few good nights into a place in college basketball history. That possibility has long been one of the tournament’s biggest draws. Lately, though, the path has looked far steeper. For the second-straight year, no team from outside the power conferences reached the Sweet 16, and this year’s first round produced an average margin of victory of 17.4 points, the highest since the field expanded in 1985.
That shift has led to a common conclusion that NIL has weakened one of the tournament’s defining traits — the ability for lower-seeded teams to make deep, unexpected runs. The reality is more complicated. Upsets have not disappeared, but sustaining that success across multiple rounds has become far more difficult for lower-seeded teams.
This year’s tournament still produced moments that reflect what college basketball is supposed to be about. No. 12 High Point University defeated No. 5 University of Wisconsin 83-82 and nearly followed it with another upset against No. 4 University of Arkansas. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth University erased a double-digit deficit to beat No. 6 University of North Carolina in overtime. Even at the very top of the bracket, No. 16 Siena University pushed No. 1 Duke University deep into the second half, and No. 16 Howard University competed with No. 1 University of Michigan before fading after halftime. Those results show the gap has not closed completely. Lower seeds are still capable of competing, and on the right night, can still win.
What has changed is what happens next. The same conditions that allow an upset to occur now work against that team’s ability to advance. NIL has reshaped roster construction across college basketball, concentrating talent at the top of the sport. Power conference programs can now build and maintain rosters with a combination of elite freshmen, experienced transfers and returning players who are compensated at levels smaller programs cannot match. That dynamic has altered the foundation of what once allowed mid-majors to thrive.
For years, those programs relied on continuity. Veteran lineups that had spent multiple seasons together entered the tournament with a level of cohesion that often offset the talent gap. The transfer portal, combined with NIL opportunities, has made it far more difficult for smaller programs to retain their best players. When a player breaks out at a mid-major, larger programs are now in position to offer financial incentives and a higher competitive platform. As a result, many of the players who once would have stayed and formed the core of a tournament run are now moving on before that continuity can fully develop.
The financial disparity extends beyond individual players. Programs at the top of the sport are heavily investing in infrastructure — including training staffs, nutrition programs and overall player development. That difference shows on the court, particularly in areas such as physicality and depth, where high-major programs consistently hold an advantage.
At the same time, other factors have contributed to the decline in deep runs by lower seeds. Conference realignment has weakened several of the leagues that once produced strong mid-major contenders, and improved seeding processes have reduced the likelihood of elite, smaller programs being placed too low in the bracket. Those changes have made early-round matchups less volatile and have increased the probability that the better team advances.
Even within that environment, the idea that Cinderella has disappeared entirely is overstated. The margin for error has simply shrunk. A team looking to make a run now needs experienced players, favorable matchups and a degree of consistency that is difficult to maintain against deeper, more talented opponents. The near upsets this year suggest that the gap is not insurmountable, but it is clearly wider than it once was.
NIL has not removed the unpredictability that defines March, but has changed the conditions required to sustain it. The tournament can still produce moments that capture national attention, but turning those moments into a run deep into the bracket now demands a level of stability and execution that fewer lower-seeded teams can realistically achieve.
