The NFL always sorts itself out by October. A handful of divisions separate, a few sink and the rest hover in the messy middle. This season is no exception. Some groups have outplayed the projections while others are dragging because of injuries, shaky quarterback plans or defenses that cannot get off the field. The separation between the NFL’s best and worst divisions is already apparent.
8. NFC South
No division has been less inspiring than the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead behind Baker Mayfield’s connection with Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka and the emergence of Bucky Irving, though their defense keeps them in close games. The Atlanta Falcons have been carried by Bijan Robinson, while sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent. The Carolina Panthers have shown no real promise with Bryce Young regressing and a defense that remains weak, leaving Tetairoa McMillan as their lone bright spot. The New Orleans Saints have been more competitive than their 1-4 record suggests, yet they remain one of the NFL’s worst teams.
7. AFC East
The Buffalo Bills’ 4-1 record no longer carries the perfection it once did, as their loss to the New England Patriots exposed lingering issues. Nonetheless, Buffalo still looks like a Super Bowl contender with Josh Allen playing at an MVP level and a defense that creates turnovers in key moments. New England, now 3-2 after back-to-back wins, has found their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, who already looks like one of the NFL’s best young passers. The Miami Dolphins look nothing like the team that dominated two seasons ago, as Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to regain form and a thin offensive line must now adjust without Tyreek Hill. The New York Jets remain one of the NFL’s worst rosters, still rebuilding under new head coach Aaron Glenn.
6. AFC South
The Indianapolis Colts have been the surprise team in the NFL. Quarterback Daniel Jones’ efficiency and running back Jonathan Taylor’s continued excellence have given the Colts a balanced identity. The Jacksonville Jaguars have looked revitalized under coach Liam Cohen, with a strong run game and a defensive line led by Joshua Hines-Allen that ranks among the league’s best. However, inconsistent quarterback play from Trevor Lawrence and a sophomore slump from receiver Brian Thomas Jr. have kept Jacksonville from taking control. The Houston Texans still feature an elite defense, but trading away left tackle Laremy Tunsil has left C.J. Stroud unprotected behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. Last and certainly least, the Tennessee Titans have undoubtedly been the league’s worst team through the first month of the season.
5. AFC North
The Pittsburgh Steelers have started 3-1 thanks to some lucky breaks and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers, who has elevated the offense with efficient play and a strong connection to his receivers. Their defense, however, has been among the league’s worst. The Baltimore Ravens, once viewed as a Super Bowl favorite, have stumbled badly as defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s defense has regressed, and injuries, including to Lamar Jackson, have left them reeling. The Cleveland Browns boast one of the NFL’s best defenses behind Myles Garrett’s dominant start, but their offense keeps them from contending. The Cincinnati Bengals have collapsed without Joe Burrow, whose injury has exposed one of the league’s weakest offensive lines and backup quarterbacks.
4. NFC East
The Philadelphia Eagles’ 4-1 start cements the East’s top-heavy identity. Philadelphia remains deep and disciplined, with a defense that can close out games with pressure and Jalen Hurts commanding an offense that can win in multiple ways. The Washington Commanders are powered by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who, after one of the greatest rookie seasons in league history, will soon return from injury and look to continue his rise as one of the NFL’s elite young stars. The Dallas Cowboys have thrived behind MVP-caliber play from Dak Prescott and a rejuvenated run game, though a defense without Micah Parsons has limited them. The New York Giants possess an elite pass rush, but an undermanned offense without Malik Nabers keeps this division from ranking higher.
3. NFC West
The Los Angeles Rams persist as one of the NFC’s best, spearheaded by Matthew Stafford and his connection with Puka Nacua. Their defensive line is anchored by Jared Verse, Kobie Turner and Braden Fisk, giving them the toughness to win in the trenches. The Seattle Seahawks defensive surge under coach Mike Macdonald. This, combined with Sam Darnold managing games efficiently and Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a star receiver has caused the Seahawks to reshape the division. The San Francisco 49ers continue to be dangerous under coach Kyle Shanahan, while the Arizona Cardinals have shown real improvement on both sides of the ball. That overall balance keeps the NFC West among the league’s toughest.
2. AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the NFL’s model of consistency, led by Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. With wide receiver Rashee Rice set to return from suspension in week seven, the offense should only get stronger as Kansas City continues to look like the team to beat in the AFC. On the other hand, the Denver Broncos, now 3-2, have bounced back with two straight wins. Early in the season however, they were one of the league’s biggest disappointments as quarterback Bo Nix struggled to adjust with Sean Payton taking the training wheels off his offense. The Los Angeles Chargers — when healthy — boast one of the NFL’s best offenses behind Justin Herbert and a defense improving under Jim Harbaugh. However,injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt could derail their season. The Las Vegas Raiders have fallen short of expectations, but the top-end talent keeps the AFC West near the league’s elite.
1. NFC North
No division looks deeper or steadier. The Detroit Lions have looked closer to the version of themselves that won 15 regular-season games a year ago. They bounced back from a brutal week one loss to the Green Bay Packers and have dominated most opponents with the same balanced offense that carried them last season. Green Bay’s mix of Jordan Love’s growth and a defense boosted by Micah Parsons gives them championship potential. The Chicago Bears have taken a leap under new head coach Ben Johnson, and despite major questions at quarterback, the Minnesota Vikings own one of the deepest rosters in football. If J.J. McCarthy develops into what he was projected to be, Minnesota has the tools to contend for a Super Bowl.
Five weeks in, the picture is clear, yet far from complete. Some divisions have confirmed their preseason billing while others have rewritten it entirely. Every division tells a different story, but the early standings make one thing obvious — some groups are built for January, while others are already playing for next year.
